外商直接投资、区域创新与城市化发展研究

基于2000—2017年省际面板数据,运用静态面板与门限面板模型,通过建立以政府干预、市场化进程为门限变量的回归模型,实证分析了外商直接投资与区域创新对我国城市化发展的影响。研究结果表明:外商直接投资、区域创新对城市化发展有积极的带动作用,同时,外商直接投资对区域创新的作用由替代效应向互补效应转变;政府干预对外商直接投资存在双重门限效应,对区域创新存在单一门限效应;市场化对外商直接投资存在单一门限效应,但对区域创新存在双重门限效应。基于以上结论,进一步提出促进城市化发展的建议。     

价值链视角下科技人才分布对区域创新系统效率的影响

科技人才作为科技创新的主体，是区域创新系统的重要投入，其省际分布状况潜在影响着各区域创新效率。基于2009-2016年我国内地30个省级区域科技人才与研发面板数据，在创新价值链分解的基础上，分别考察科技人才数量与结构维度对区域创新系统三阶段效率的影响。结果发现：在数量维度下，科技人才分布规模对区域知识创新效率、专利创新效率有非线性倒U型影响，先后从人才聚集规模经济效应转向不经济效应;整体集中度提高即全国科技人才分布相对集中有助于提升各地区专利创新与产品创新效率;在结构维度下，科技人才队伍中女性与博士研发人员越来越高的比重对知识创新效率表现为负向影响作用。最后，结合新旧动能转换背景,提出积极发挥人才集聚正向效应的建议。inno[]rlzb[]rlzb[]czpz[]czpz[]cyjg[]cyjg[]dwkf[]dwkf〖BHDG1*3,WK7*3ZQ,WK6。9DWW〗     

FDI与OFDI溢出对高技术产业区域创新的门槛效应研究

选取2003-2016年省域高技术产业面板数据，以R&D人员投入为门槛变量，实证分析FDI与OFDI溢出对高技术产业区域创新的非线性影响。得出以下稳健性结论：FDI和OFDI溢出对高技术产业区域创新具有双门槛效应，FDI溢出呈现先升后降的特征，而OFDI溢出则呈现先降后升特征；R&D人员投入、R&D资本积累、城镇化水平有利于高技术产业区域创新，而金融成熟度未产生明显推动作用；政府支持可能对R&D人力投入较高省份产生抑制作用；2003-2016年跨越R&D人员投入中、高门槛的省份在不断增加。     

区际产业转移关联溢出与产业高质量发展——对电子设备制造业的实证检验

基于我国区际产业转移大背景，使用1999-2016内地年30个省市、27个二位数工业行业数据定量测度区际产业转移，选择产业关联较强的电子设备制造业为研究对象，使用投入产出法识别关联产业、测算其关联产业溢出，利用2004—2016年内地28个省市面板数据构建模型对关联产业溢出效应与电子设备制造业转移的关系、产业转移中的关联产业溢出与电子设备制造业高质量发展的关系分别进行了实证检验。研究发现：①2014年中国工业空间基尼系数出现拐点，总体工业由之前的分散转移转为新的集中转移，而电子设备制造业仍处在向中部地区和西南地区集聚的分散转移中；②电子设备制造业转移中的产业关联溢出效应确实存在，且促进了电子设备制造业生产效率的提高和产业高质量发展；③产业转移中第三产业关联溢出效应对电子设备制造业分散转移的作用高于工业，但工业的关联溢出对电子设备制造业生产效率提升的作用明显高于第三产业。     

能源企业技术创新能力对财务绩效的影响——基于企业规模的门槛效应研究

能源消费和供给的重要性使得政府给予能源企业技术创新更多关注和支持，能源企业经营存在较大风险使得能源企业技术创新能力对财务绩效的影响呈现一定特殊性。以我国能源企业2013-2018年技术创新投入与产出能力指标为样本数据，采用因子分析法和动态面板门槛效应模型，在评价能源企业技术创新能力的基础上，分别研究能源企业技术创新投入和产出能力对财务绩效的影响及企业规模门槛效应。研究结果表明，能源企业的技术创新投入和综合能力对财务绩效的影响存在显著的门槛效应，而产出能力的表现并不显著。研究结果可为国家和能源企业的技术政策制定和创新投入决策提供参考。     

驱动经济高质量发展的科技创新要素及时空差异——2009—2017年省级面板数据的空间计量分析

基于2009—2017年中国内地31个省域面板数据，利用空间计量模型分析科技创新驱动经济高质量发展的时空差异，认为中国经济高质量发展指数稳步上升，空间聚集及正向溢出效应显著，空间依赖性强。R&D投入强度、科技研发成果、万人高校在校人数及城镇化率对经济高质量发展的影响均为正，财政教育支出的影响为负；经济地理距离相近省份R&D投入强度、财政教育支出及城镇化率对本省经济高质量发展的影响均为正，科技研发成果、万人高校在校人数及互联网基础条件的影响均为负。西部及中部地区科技创新人力与科技财政支出要素对经济高质量发展的积极影响大于其它地区，而东部地区科技资金投入、科技研发成果及科技成果转化度要素对经济高质量发展的积极影响大于其它地区。     

I (Could Have) Told You! Early warning indicators and crisis performance of the 12 “old” Euro-countries under the economic crisis 2008–09

The impact of the economic crisis 2008-09 was remarkably different in the 12 “old” member states in the Euro-zone. Five of them were hit especially badly; four of them even had to be bailed out by the rest in one way or another. This paper asks if one could have foretold, based solely on information available prior to 1999, which of the countries then about to enter the Euro-zone would run into economic trouble once a serious economic crisis occurred. The focus is on the (post)predictive power of three kinds of leading indicators: economic indicators, political indicators (indicating quality of governance), and indicators derived from the theory of optimal currency areas (OCA). Since there are more indicators than cases, PLS-regression is used to gauge the (post)predictive strength of the indicators examined. The results show that political indicators have quite some (post)predictive power in this case, whereas indicators derived from OCA-theory do not do too well. Economic indicators perform better than indicators derived from OCA-theory, but generally less well than the political indicators. Thus, the experience from the latest economic crisis in the Euro-zone suggests that more emphasis should be placed on the quality of governance record of a country when deciding if it should be deemed fit to become a member.     

Foreign direct investment and economic growth: Is more financial development better?

We investigate the extent to which an increase in financial development affects the positive effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth. Although the financial sector is beneficial for economic growth, the effect of further financial development on growth is found to become insignificant. Using a dynamic panel threshold model on 62 middle- and high-income countries spanning the period 1987–2016, we re-examine the possible nonlinearity between finance, foreign direct investment, and growth. Consistent with the “vanishing effect” of financial development, we find significant evidence that foreign direct investment fosters growth in general, but the growth effect of foreign direct investment becomes negligible when the ratio of private sector credit to gross domestic product exceeds 95.6%. This finding is robust to different econometric methods, various subsamples and interaction analyses, and distinct financial development indicators.     

Relationship between city size and firm productivity – A new interpretation using the Chinese experience

This paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between city size and firm productivity by focusing on agglomeration, selection (market competition), and sorting (presence of firms with diverse productivity) effects using Chinese firm-level data for 1998–2013. Contrary to the existing literature, our parametric regression estimates from nearly two million firms show that when the selection effect is controlled, productivity advantage in big cities is reversed. This outcome is explained through a quantile regression showing the existence of left-sided sorting (inefficient firms sort themselves to larger cities) in big cities which is not captured in existing empirical literature. We further find that (1) left-sided sorting is stronger in exporters than non-exporters; (2) is also generated mainly in enterprises with high asset-liability ratios; and (3) selection has a positive effect on firm productivity, suggesting that market competition is key in an explanation of the rapid growth of big cities in China.     

Personalized goal-based investing via multi-stage stochastic goal programming

In this paper, we propose a goal-based investment model that is suitable for personalized wealth management. The model only requires a few intuitive inputs such as size of wealth, investment amount, and consumption goals from individual investors. In particular, a priority level can be assigned to each consumption goal and the model provides a holistic solution based on a sequential approach starting with the highest priority. This allows strict prioritization by maximizing the probability of achieving higher priority goals that are not affected by goals with lower priorities. Furthermore, the proposed model is formulated as a linear program that efficiently finds the optimal financial plan. With its simplicity, flexibility, and computational efficiency, the proposed goal-based investment model provides a new framework for automated investment management services.